[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Trump Is Right to Meet Putin

Full transcript of Chris Wallace's interview in Helsinki with Russian president Vladimir Putin, as supplied by Fox News.

Chris Wallace interviews Russian President Vladimir Putin

Once Again, President Trump Is Magnificently Right—This Time About Russia

McCain rips Trump: 'One of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory'

Trump condemned as treasonous after press conference with Putin

How Everything is Racist, And You’re a Terrible Person

The big influence of 'Big Pink'

Documents Reveal Two US Soldiers Overheard Plot To Kill JFK—and Were Committed After Reporting It

Fox's Perino: Strzok marriage questions by GOP lawmaker 'felt like a public lynching (Relly? I don't think so, Dana!'

Trump: Strzok's testimony 'a disgrace to our country'

Trump Is Right: Mueller’s Latest Indictment Suggests He’s Conducting A Witch Hunt

Constitutional Conservatives Fail the Drug Test

Chipped Tires

A collision of views as Bath Township calls artist's work 'junk,' heads to court

How Elected Libertarians Are Making the World More Free

The fundamental contradiction of libertarianism

Dinosaur and man walking together

You're killin' me, Smalls. 'The Sandlot' celebrates 25th anniversary

Massachusetts police officer killed after attacked with rock, shot with own gun, officials say

Mike Rowe Responds to Critics Who Don't Like His Move to Christian TV Network

Police: Richmond homeowner shoots intruder several times (San Francisco)

Internet Trolls Really Are Psychos

Adam Smith to Richard Spencer: Why Libertarians turn to the Alt-Right

Libertarians’ reality problem: How an estrangement from history yields abject failure

Family Calls for Help with Suicidal Child, Cops Show Up and Kill Him

Jury Nullifies Georgia Weed Law, Finds Man Not Guilty Despite Admittedly Growing Marijuana

Former Clinton White House Staffer: It's 'Tempting to Beat the Crap out of Rand Paul'

Reality vs Fantasy: President Trump warns Europe is ‘losing its culture’ by allowing ‘millions and millions’ of migrants, PM Theresa May praises their’ fantastic contribution’

Globalization?

NATO’s Problem Is that Europeans Won’t Fight

Trump isn’t attacking NATO. He’s strengthening it.

North Carolina Scientist Proposes Using Cannabis to Combat Invasive Species

Libertarians on Liberty’s Post suppress dissent – Sad.

Why Internet Libertarians are becoming Fascists

Libertarians Are Insane

Julian Assange, CrowdStrike, and the Russian Hack That Wasn’t

Open Question: What is a Christian Libertarian?

Pakistan Hacked the DNC Server and Maybe Hillary’s Illegal Server Too

Indiana has spent over $20 million on cleanup of failed Pence family gas stations

New Mueller indictment reveals that a congressional candidate requested stolen documents from Russian hackers in 2016

New Trump Range Rover promo video with the Queen

The Short, Unhappy Life of a Libertarian Paradise

Let's be honest, America: Dogs are parasites, not man's best friend

Meet The Air Force's $1200 Cup Of Coffee

Rosenstein Delivers Indictments For 12 Russians – Then Buries in Lock-box of DOJ National Security Division…

This Honda lawn mower will go 150 mph

Cop Who Declined to Help Puerto Rican Woman Being Harassed for ‘Un-American’ T-Shirt Resigns

Man Arrested for DUI Tells Cops He Only Drank at Stop Signs, Not While Driving: Police

An Arizona Lawmaker Thought Speeding Was OK Because of His Legislative Immunity


Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

How To
See other How To Articles

Title: Yes, Gary Johnson Could Make It Into the Debates. Here's How. (A step-by-step guide)
Source: Reason
URL Source: http://reason.com/archives/2016/06/ ... johnson-could-make-it-into-the
Published: Jul 1, 2016
Author: Emily Ekins
Post Date: 2016-07-01 17:51:23 by hondo68
Ping List: *The Two Parties ARE the Same*     Subscribe to *The Two Parties ARE the Same*
Keywords: third-party realistic chance, Paul got 17 percent, Johnson average 10 percent
Views: 434
Comments: 1

A step-by-step guide to how the Libertarian Party nominee might make it onstage.

Gary Johnson

Brian Cahn/ZUMA Press/Newscom

Fifteen percent is the magic number Libertarian presidential candidate and former governor Gary Johnson needs to reach to earn his voice in the 2016 election.

By capturing the support of 15 percent of voters in national public opinion polls, Johnson could join the major party's presidential candidates on the primetime debate stage. With both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates disliked at historic levels and a rising share of political independents frustrated with the two major parties, this is the year a third-party candidate like Johnson has a realistic chance of getting onto the debate stage.

What would it take?

Johnson would need to receive an invitation to participate in the debates from the Commission on Presidential debates (CPD), a private, non-partisan, 501(c)(3) organization that has sponsored the general election presidential debates since 1988. The CPD is not a government entity, nor does it receive government funding. But it is a creation of the two major parties, co-chaired at its inception by both the Republican and Democratic parties' national chairman.

The CPD establishes objective eligibility criteria in advance—compliant with regulations enforced by the Federal Election Commission—that all candidates must meet, including the Democratic and Republican candidates, to be invited to participate in the debate.

The CPD's 2016 debate eligibility criteria, announced last year, are as follows:

Besides being constitutionally eligible, the candidate would need to appear on a "sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College." Currently the Libertarian Party has ballot access in 32 states and is confident about getting on the remaining 18.

Next, Johnson would need to have the support of at least 15 percent of "the national electorate" as determined by the average of five selected national public opinion polling organizations' most recently publicly reported results, at the time eligibility is determined.

The CPD board, with the advisement of Dr. Frank Newport, editor-in-chief at Gallup, determines which five polling organizations will be used. The CPD board selects polling organizations based on its assessment of poll methodology quality, polling frequency, size of sample population, and the reputation of the polling organization.

So far, the CPD has not reported when it will reveal the five selected polling organizations for 2016, but will likely do so before Labor Day. The CPD has announced it will formally extend invitations to participate in the first debate after Labor Day and before September 26th, when the first debate will be held at Wright State University.

Although the CPD has not yet released the selected polling organizations it will recognize in 2016, we can look back at those included in 2012 for an idea: ABC/Washington Post, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, CBS/New York Times, Fox News, and Gallup.

The key for Gary Johnson is to convince the major polling organizations to include him in their polls—and to continue to do so . He may be in luck. The 2012 organizations that are polling the 2016 election have included him in their match-ups against Clinton and Trump, with Johnson garnering: Fox (12 percent), CBS (11 percent), NBC/Wall Street Journal (10 percent), ABC/Washington Post (7 percent), an average of roughly 10 percent. Other highly regarded pollsters such as CNN/ORC (9 percent) Quinnipiac (5 percent) and Monmouth (9 percent) have also asked about Johnson this cycle, although they were not included in CPD's 2012 recognized polls.

He's not there yet. But Johnson absolutely has a chance of getting to 15 percent in the polls. Let me explain why.

First, NBC/WSJ polls are finding voters in 2016 are more open to expressing interest in a third-party candidate compared to 2012 and 2008. In 2016, 47 percent of Americans say they would consider voting for a third party candidate up from 38 percent in 2008 and 40 percent in 2012.

Second, a Reason-Rupe poll found that 48 percent of Americans say they'd be willing to vote for a candidate who described him or herself as "conservative on economic issues" and also "liberal on social issues," which is how Gary Johnson self-describes.

And third, in 2012, a Reason-Rupe poll found that in a hypothetical three-way race between Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul, Paul got 17 percent of the vote. And Ron Paul wasn't even running as a third-party candidate and was far better known. Back in 2012, 73 percent of voters had an opinion of Ron Paul—far more than the 32 percent of voters who've formed an opinion of Johnson.

To be sure, Americans are far more likely to express support for minor party candidates in polls than they are at the ballot box. However, public polling is what matters for getting into the debates. These data indicate there is an appetite for a candidate like Gary Johnson, and wherever his ceiling may exist, it's likely higher than 15 percent.

If Johnson is on the eligibility cusp, then the CPD may exercise subjectivity in determining whether or not he is allowed to participate in the debates. For instance, it is unclear how the CPD defines "support…of the national electorate" since in practice pollsters have different methods of determining who likely voters are and thus what is the national electorate.


Poster Comment:

Ross Perot beat Herbie Bush. Gary Johnson can thump Trump.

Herbie Bush = Hillary Clinton = Donald Trump

To paraphrase Ronald Reagan: If you've seen one globalist NWO puppet, you've seen 'em all!(1 image)

Subscribe to *The Two Parties ARE the Same*

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

#1. To: hondo68 (#0)

With GOP/DEM political party controlling any publick debates concerning the 2016 Presidential hopefuls, you can be sure the the "picks" shall be those that demand the GREATEST POLICE STATE America has ever seen.

Those "picks" are Trump and Clinton.

buckeroo  posted on  2016-07-01   20:52:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Please report web page problems, questions and comments to webmaster@libertysflame.com