[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Sheriff Rebels Against Governor: 'We Will Not Be Setting Up a Police State'

Jimmy Dore vs. Fake "Liberal" Burnie Sanders

White House COVID-19 Mortality Estimates Fall By 90%

For A Glimpse Into Your Dystopian Police State Future, Just Visit Your Local Walmart

Residents Alarmed after Cops Use “Purge Siren” to Signal Start of Curfew

Big Three Networks to Air ‘One World Global Citizen’ Coronavirus Benefit Concert

San Diego Police Ticket Dozens For Watching Sunset On Beach

Gnarly! California Police Arresting Surfers To Fight Corona

Sheriff's Office That Employed A Deputy Facing 9 Lawsuits And 44 Criminal Charges Says It Has Lost All Of His Dashcam Footage

Covid tears: ‘No masks nurse’ story shows how pandemic is newfound opportunity for MSM to peddle emotionally-charged fake news

A tale of two brothers: Baton Rouge siblings die days apart from coronavirus complications

East Baton Rouge deputy — 'a dedicated public servant' — dies from coronavirus, sheriff says

Baton Rouge region braces for coronavirus apex after recording deadliest day

Positive cases of coronavirus in Baton Rouge exceed 800 Monday; see statewide totals

Mayor issues statement after EBR sees spike in COVID-19 cases

Newborn baby dies in Baton Rouge after coronavirus-positive mom went into premature labor

Foolishness isn't faith

Tony Spell is an attention-seeking fool. That's not what a pastor should be.

Light up your lockdown: Pink supermoon on the way this week

Drone Barks Orders at NYC Residents to Stay ‘6 Feet Apart’

Neighbor Calls Lockdown Police on Family For Weightlifting in Their Own Front Yard

Bill Gates And Company – Go To Hell

Henry Kissinger & Bill Gates Call For Mass Vaccination & Global Governance

Why People Worry Much More Than They Need To

YouTube moves to limit spread of coronavirus 5G theory

Washington DC Mayor threatening to throw those in JAIL who break “stay at home orders” at same time Congress is taking off on Vacation!

North Carolina Pro-Lifers Sue City After Being Arrested for Prayer Outside of Abortion Clinic

Creepy: Walmart Installs 1984-Like Speakers Warning Not To Violate Social Distancing Orders

Brooklyn Landlord Cancels Rent for Hundreds of Tenants So They Can Buy Food Instead

Staged? Video Shows Hospital Using Dummies In ER For Coronavirus Footage

Shooting from the Hip

NY Coronavirus: 'We Could Be On The Plateau'

Here's What Happens To Those Threatening NJ Cops With Coronavirus

In rural America, cops are delivering groceries to vulnerable residents

A Minnesota trooper pulled over a doctor for speeding. Then he gave her his N95 medical masks

The Unlikely Source Of The First Christian Rock Song

Texas pastors demand a “religious liberty” exemption to coronavirus stay-at-home orders

Virus hot spots in South poised for disproportionate suffering

South Korean church holds 'drive-in' services – video

"Pandemic Drones" Can Now Detect Fever and Coughing

CASH TO BE DETHRONED. FEDERAL RESERVE PRESSES ARE HISTORY. (*Banks Already Gearing Up For Digital Crypto-Currencies*)

President Trump (VIDEO, 2:12): "This was artificially induced..."

Wake Up: The War is Now Here in America!

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Defends Deeming Churches ‘Essential’

Rep Thomas Massie Stands Up For The Constitution, Trump Calls For Him to Be 'Thrown Out' Of GOP

The America You See Today is the America Envisioned by the Green New Deal

We don’t need no social distance: NJ cops bust Pink Floyd ‘corona party’

NC church service linked to coronavirus cluster

45 of 60 People Who Went to Washington Choir Practice Have Coronavirus

Health alert: One-third of coronavirus cases in Sacramento County are connected to churches Religion

Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

United States News
See other United States News Articles

Title: Coronavirus Epidemic May Be Slowed by Warm and Humid Weather
Source: Reason
URL Source: https://reason.com/2020/03/16/coron ... wed-by-warm-and-humid-weather/
Published: Mar 16, 2020
Author: Ronald Bailey
Post Date: 2020-03-21 07:14:46 by Deckard
Keywords: None
Views: 19


(Aridha Prassetya | Dreamstime.com)

Will the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 recede as the weather warms up, as flu viruses often do? Maybe so, according to a preliminary study by Chinese researchers. That would be terrific news.

Basically, the researchers analyzed how the epidemic evolved in various Chinese cities taking into account the weather in each. They also compared how the virus proliferated in countries with relatively lower seasonal air temperature and lower humidity (e.g., Korea, Japan, and Iran), which experienced more severe outbreaks with its spread in warmer and more humid countries (e.g., Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand), where the outbreaks have been more limited.

In cold dry weather the basic reproduction number (R) of the new coronavirus is somewhere between 2 and 3—that is, each infected person passes along the virus to an average of 2 to 3 other people. Once they've crunched the data, the researchers find that a one degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower the R value by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively.

Let's take the average climate of a randomly chosen American city—say, Washington, D.C. In March, the average high temperature is 56 degrees Fahrenheit (13.3 degrees C), with a relative humidity of 58 percent. In August, the average high temperature is 87 degrees Fahrenheit (30.6 degrees C) and humidity averages 71 percent. Assuming optimistically an R of 2, that would yield an August R of 1.047. In this scenario, rising summer heat and humidity would cut the R in half and significantly slow down the course of the epidemic.

The beneficial effects of summer, combined with conscientiously practiced mitigation measures such as social distancing and case isolation that flatten the epidemic's curve of infections, could drive R could below 1, causing the number of new cases to decline. If the new coronavirus turns out to be seasonal, the denizens of D.C. (and most folks living in the rest of the country) will get a respite from COVID-19 this summer.

If these findings prove happily true, expect our political leaders to take full credit for the relief that warmer weather will afford us. But don't forget the House of Stark motto in The Game of Thrones: "Winter is coming." The second winter wave of the 1918 Spanish flu was far more deadly than the original outbreak.

Nevertheless, a dog days lull in the epidemic would provide a breathing spell during which our health care system could substantially beef up treatment and mitigation efforts. It might even allow researchers enough time to discover and deploy effective pharmaceutical therapies for the disease.

(2 images)

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  

[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Please report web page problems, questions and comments to webmaster@libertysflame.com